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THE BEST FILMS
WHAT CRITICS
LOVED IN 2012
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CULTURE
E-BOOK DEAL
PRICE FIXING
CASE SETTLED
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BUSINESSWITH
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BUSINESSWITH
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THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2012
GLOBAL.NYTIMES.COM
E.U. leaders
reach accord
on bank
supervision
Consensus
grows that
Assad’s hold
is fading fast
BRUSSELS
MOSCOW
E.C.B. will exercise
control over 100 to 200
big euro-zone institutions
Russian diplomat casts
rare doubts; NATO chief
says it’s a matter of time
BY JAMES KANTER
E.U. leaders gathering here Thursday
for their year-end summit meeting
hailed an agreement to place euro zone
banks under a single supervisor, calling
it a concretemeasure tomaintain the vi-
ability of the currency as well as a step
in laying the groundwork for a broader
economic union.
The pact was hashed out in an all-
night session of finance ministers that
ended Thursday morning after France
and Germany made significant compro-
mises. Under the agreement, between
100 and 200 large banks in the euro zone
will fall under the direct supervision of
the European Central Bank.
A round of talks a week earlier broke
up amid French-German discord over
how many banks in the currency union
should be covered by the new system.
In a concession to Germany, the fi-
nanceministers agreed that thousands of
smaller banks would be primarily over-
seen by national regulators. But to satis-
fy the French, who wanted all euro zone
banks to be held accountable, the E.C.B.
would be able to take over supervision of
any bank in the region at any time.
The agreement by the finance minis-
ters, which still requires the approval of
the European Parliament and some na-
tional parliaments including the Ger-
man Bundestag, made it possible for
E.U. leaders arriving here later Thurs-
day to gather in a spirit unity.
‘‘It’s a good day for Europe,’’ said
FrançoisHollande, the French president.
‘‘The crisis came from the banks, and
mechanisms have been put in place that
will mean nothing is as it was before.’’
Angela Merkel, the German chancel-
lor, said the agreement was ‘‘a big step
toward more trust and confidence in the
BY ELLEN BARRY
AND RICK GLADSTONE
Russia’s top Middle East diplomat and
the leader of NATO indicated in separate
remarks on Thursday that they believed
that President Bashar al-Assad was los-
ing control of Syria after nearly two
years of conflict and that his govern-
ment’s demise was only a matter of time.
The bleak and strikingly similar ap-
praisals added new pressures on Mr.
Assad, who has in recent days resorted
to increasingly desperate measures, ac-
cording to U.S. officials, by using Scud
ballistic missiles to try and beat back an
armed insurgency encroaching on the
Syrian capital, Damascus.
The remarks from the Russian diplo-
mat, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail
Bogdanov, were a particularly stinging
blow, coming from one of Mr. Assad’s
staunchest backers. They offered one of
the first and clearest indications that
Russia believed that its longtime ally
could lose a war that has already cost an
estimated 40,000 lives. Moscow has
been Mr. Assad’s principal arms suppli-
er.
‘‘Unfortunately, it is impossible to ex-
clude a victory of the Syrian opposi-
tion,’’ Mr. Bogdanov said in remarks to
the Public Chamber, a Kremlin advisory
group, according to the Interfax news
agency. ‘‘We must look squarely at the
facts, and the trend now suggests that
the regime and the government in Syria
are losing more and more control and
more and more territory.’’
In another sign of its dimming faith in
Mr. Assad, Russia, he said, is preparing
plans in case it has to evacuate its cit-
izens.
Separately, in comments to reporters
in Brussels, the secretary general of
NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, also
predicted the demise of Mr. Assad’s
government.
‘‘I think the regime in Damascus is
approaching collapse,’’ he said after a
meeting with the Dutch prime minister
at NATO headquarters. ‘‘I think now it
is only a question of time.’’
Together, the diplomats’ remarks re-
inforced a growing consensus — among
Mr. Assad’s opponents and supporters
alike — that the Syrian leader’s options
for remaining in power had been all but
exhausted.
Throughout the Syria crisis, as it has
grown from peaceful protests in March
2011 to engulf the country in civil war,
Russia has acted as Syria’s principal in-
ternational shield, protecting Mr. Assad
diplomatically from Western and Arab
attempts to oust himand holding out the
possibility of his staying in power dur-
ing a transition.
Only in recent days has Russia’s view
seemed to shift, whileMr. Assad’s oppo-
nents, grouped in a newly minted and
still uncertain coalition, have garnered
ever broader international support as
the legitimate representatives of the
BERTRAND LANGLOIS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
President François Hollande of France, center, and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany at the Brussels summit meeting on Thursday. The two leaders made significant compromises.
Portrayal o
f torture strikes nerve in U.S.
WASHINGTON
the divisive subject of torture.
The film’s unflinching portrayal of the
C.I.A.’s interrogation of Al Qaeda pris-
oners hews close to the official record,
offering a sampling of methods like the
near-drowning of waterboarding.
What has already divided the critics,
journalists and activists who have
watched early screenings is a more
subtle issue: the suggestion that the cal-
culated infliction of pain and fear, graph-
ically shown in the first 45minutes of the
film, may have produced useful early
clues in the quest to find the terrorist
leader, who was killed inMay 2011.
Such a claim is anathema to outspoken
critics of the Bush administration’s de-
cision in 2002 to resort to methods that
the United States had for decades
shunned as illegal. And a new, 6,000-
page report on C.I.A. interrogations by
the Senate Intelligence Committee,
based on a study of some six million
pages of agency documents, finds that
brutal treatment was not ‘‘a central com-
ponent’’ in finding Bin Laden, said the
committee’s chairwoman, Senator Di-
anne Feinstein, Democrat of California.
But the report, which the committee
was to decide whether to approve on
Thursday, remains classified, with little
likelihood that any of it will be public for
months. It has already become fodder
for a partisan fight, with Republicans
denouncing it as flawed and incomplete.
Nearly a decade after the C.I.A. is last
known to have waterboarded a suspect,
the U.S. argument over torture remains
unresolved and has lost little of its emo-
tional potency, whether the spark is a
blockbuster movie or a Senate report.
Film on Bin Laden hunt
revives debate on C.I.A.
interrogation techniques
BY SCOTT SHANE
Even before its official release, ‘‘Zero
Dark Thirty,’’ the new movie about the
hunt for Osama bin Laden, has become
a Rorschach test in the United States on
EURO, PAGE 18
TORTURE, PAGE 7
From pub pastime to the world:
Great expectatio
ns from darts
BY STEVEN COTTON
The former world champion made his
way to the stage, wielding a light saber
and flanked by Princess Leia and a
posse of Stormtroopers, while the sell-
out crowd, merry on Christmas cheer
and liters of beer, roared in approval.
Over the public address system, ‘‘The
Imperial March’’ —Darth Vader’s theme
— played at ear-shattering volume. The
fans, many dressed asMr. Incredible, pir-
ates, animals or the Jamaican bobsled-
ders from the film ‘‘Cool Runnings,’’ had
scrawled messages on placards, hoping
the television cameras would spot them.
These scenes played out at world
championship sporting events in recent
years. Specifically,
the World Darts
Championship.
A game once considered a pub pas-
time has become a major industry in
Europe. Over the holiday season,
Premier League soccer is the only sport
that will attract more television viewers
in Britain than the Professional Darts
Corporation’s championship, the high-
er-quality and better-attended of darts’
two world championships.
TheWorldDarts Championship begins
Friday in London, with 72 players from 21
nations competing for $1.6million in prize
money. The winner of the final on Jan. 1
will take home $321,000, crowned as the
first world champion of 2013 in any sport.
GEERT VANDENWIJNGAERT/AP
MONTI GETSMIXED REVIEWS IN ITALY
Prime Minister Mario Monti has
burnished Italy’s image abroad, but is
less beloved at home.
PAGE 4
THE BERLUSCONI EFFECT
Silvio Berlusconi is pandering to anti-
German sentiments in his country,
Anatole Kaletsky writes.
PAGE 16
A TOUGH ROAD AHEAD FOR DEUTSCHE BANK
The German bank is on the defensive
as it tries to win back the trust of both
shareholders and the public.
PAGE 16
CARL COURT/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
A change in uniform
Jatenderpal Singh Bhullar on Thursday at Buckingham
Palace. He is the first guardsman to parade in a traditional Sikh turban.
DARTS, PAGE 12
SYRIA, PAGE 5
WORLDNEWS
Judges uphold rendition claim
After years of legal struggles, a German
man mistaken for a terrorist and
abducted and held captive for months
won a measure of redress on Thursday
when the European Court of Human
Rights ruled that Macedonia had
violated his rights by arresting him and
turning him over to the C.I.A.
PAGE 4
A senator with an ax to grind
Senator Bernard Sanders, the brusque
Vermont independent who calls himself
a socialist, has carved out a place for
himself as the antithesis of the Tea
Party. He is also becoming a thorn in
the side of President Barack Obama on
the issue of deficit reduction.
PAGE 7
Life expectancy improves
A sharp decline in deaths from
malnutrition and diseases has caused a
shift in global mortality patterns over
the past 20 years, a report said, with
more of the world’s population living into
old age and dying from diseases more
associated with rich countries.
PAGE 7
BUSINESS
Web impasse snarls treaty
Fearing curbs on free speech and the
upsetting of the existing form of Internet
oversight, the United States rejected a
telecommunications agreement
negotiated by more than 190 countries in
Dubai in talks that often pittedWestern
governments against developing
countries. The U.S. announcement was
seconded by Canada and several
European countries.
PAGE 16
Fracking gets go-ahead in U.K.
The British government’s decision,
which imposes stringent controls on
exploratory hydraulic fracturing,
potentially opens the way for the
development of a shale gas industry in
Western Europe.
PAGE 16
S.&P. puts Britain on watch
Standard & Poor’s put Britain’s triple-A
credit rating on negative watch, falling
into line with its two main rivals after
the government announced it would
miss one of its debt-cutting goals and
extend austerity measures.
PAGE 19
ONLINE
Claim of looting of Khmer art
A civil complaint filed by the United
States says a Bangkok collector bought a
10th-century statue knowing it had been
looted.
global.nytimes.com/arts/design
VIEWS
Roger Cohen
If you need consoling about America’s
prospects, look beyond the cliff a few
years to an energy independent United
States whose capacity for reinvention is
far from exhausted.
PAGE 9
Better days in Hong Kong?
Displays of nostalgia in Hong Kong are
not for colonial rule, but for the
freedoms its people once enjoyed and
for a government that left them to get on
with their lives, writes Verna Yu.
PAGE 8
COMING THISWEEKEND
Miraculous survivors: Books
Has the literary night life of New York
City faded? A reporter sets out to
determine why a writer’s Manhattan
seems to have lost wattage.
Fracking’s gift to U.S. steel
The U.S. steel industry has received the
economic equivalent of a gift from the
heavens: natural gas extracted by
means of hydraulic fracturing.
U.S. ATTORNEY’S OFFICE, VIA AFP
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2
|
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2012
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
page two
Businesses
need more
than math
told me. ‘‘Politics have become more
important for many advancedcoun-
tries, too.’’
Drawing on thethinking of the bank
chief executives, fund managers and
regulators who gathered this weekin
Toronto, and my conversations with
Mr. Bremmer and Mr. Roubini, here
are sevenreasons that in the coming
year politics will matterasmuch as
economic projections foranyone run-
ning a business:
•
Europe: This is the primeexampleof
how, as Mr. Roubini putsit, the de-
veloped marketsare ‘‘submerging,’ ’ or
reverting to an emerging-markets-style
world in which politics drives almostev-
erything.Mr. Bremmer calls it
‘‘Europe’s existential moment,’’ and that
is ultimatelyamatterforpoliticians.
•
Chrystia
Freeland
China: Theworld’sdominantemerg-
ing market, and maybe before too long
itsdominanteconomy full stop, also
happens to be acommunist state in
which politics explicitly steers all busi-
ness and economic decisions.
•
TheUnitedStates: In Toronto, there
wasalot of discussion of the fiscal cliff
and how it has politicized theU.S.eco-
nomic outlook—oneof theAmerican
visitors, aleading financier, devoted
mostof his presentation on theU.S.
economy to the politics of the Beltway.
•
WAY OF THEWORLD
TORONTO
Prepare for the revengeof
politics. For the past few decades,the
quants —mathematicians, physicists
and technologists — and their younger
brothers,theeconomists, have beenin
the ascendant. With their mathemat-
ical models and their ability to crunch
vast quantities ofdata,theyhave
shaped theway businesses understand
theworld, and operate within it.
But politics is making a comeback.
Thatwas oneof the persistentthemes
at an invitation-only high-powered
international conference about system-
ic risk in the financial servicescon-
venedbythe Global Risk Institute in
Toronto this week (I was the rappor-
teur). As oneof the bankers put it, if
you wanttounderstand theworld eco-
nomic outlookfor2013, and where your
company should invest, you can’t just
talk to economistsanymore: ‘‘You
need to talk to political scientists.’ ’
I tested that idea with two thinkers —
one an economist, theotherapolitical
scientist—who maketheir living help-
ing businesses understand theworld.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Ian Brem-
mer,the political scientist and founder
of the Eurasia Group, instantly agreed.
‘‘WhenIstarted the firm in 1998, I
had to convince people about the im-
portanceofpolitical science, and I was
not always successful,’ ’ Mr. Bremmer
said.Making that pitch is getting easier
—Mr. Bremmernow has some 150em-
ployees and 400 clientsaround the
world.
Thattrend is growing, he believes,
and hethinks a major driveristhe rise
of theemerging markets.Mr. Bremmer
defines emerging marketsas‘‘coun-
tries where politics matters at least as
much as economic outcomes’’; he also
points out that over the past five years,
emerging marketshave beenrespon-
sible for two-thirds ofglobal growth.
Put thosetogether and you have a
world in which politics matters more.
Mr. Bremmer has beenbetting since
1998, whenhe started his firm,that
businessesshould care about politics.
NourielRoubini has no such profes-
sional stake in the issue. Mr. Roubini is
an economist par excellence—he shot
to international fame as Dr. Doom
when his bleak predictions about the
world economy came horribly true
with the financial crisis, and his
eponymous firm now boastssome 1,100
clients worldwide.
Evenso, Mr. Roubini agrees with Mr.
Bremmer’s thesis, and takesitone step
further. ‘‘Theemerging marketshave
emerged,evenasthe developed mar-
ketshave submerged,’ ’ Mr. Roubini
The Global Balanceof Power:As Mr.
Bremmerput it, ‘‘We are living in a
timeofgeopolitical creative destruc-
tion. Geopolitics are suddenly in play in
a way that for the last half-century
theyhaven’t been.’ ’ We are moving
from the brief, post-Cold War Pax
Americana to anew ageof Metternich,
and theeconomic implications arevast,
fast changing and hard to figure out.
•
TheOld Economic Tools Don’t Work
Anymore: This was the argumentofan-
other smart and influential American
speakerinToronto. He believes the
world economy operatesin60-year
cycles, and thatweareentering a new
one, which is why theold rulesno longer
apply.Mr. Roubini makes a similar
point. He argues thatthe familiar
macroeconomic toolkit isn’t working
anymore. That means we need to create
one, an inevitably political process.
•
FERNANDO LLANO/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
A supporter of Hugo Chávez held a photograph of the president during a prayer service in Caracas. Fighting for his life, Mr. Chávez is in Cuba undergoing cancer treatment.
Chávez
’s giant footprints
CARACAS
Return of the Regulators:Adomi-
nanttheme—or, more accurately,
lament—in Toronto was that financial
regulation is back. That is true — al-
though perhaps bothless than the
bankers fear and than liberals would
like—and it is anotherreasonpolitics
matters.
•
‘‘There’s ust nobody within Chav-
ismowho can remotely match Chávez’s
capacity to connecttoVenezuelans,’ ’
said Michael Shifter, presidentofInter-
American Dialogue, aresearch groupin
Washington. ‘‘Whattiesittogetheris
loyalty and a personal attachmentto
Chávez, and that’s very weak. That’s
not a very solid foundation.’ ’
On Wednesday,with a grim face, Mr.
Maduro implied thatthe president’scon-
dition was indeedserious,warning the
nation to prepare for‘‘the hard, complex
and difficult days’’ ahead. It isabitter pill
for many Chávez supporters to swallow.
‘‘We don’t needanotherpresident, we
need him,’ ’ Reina Mocoa, 50, said.
A fervent Chávez follower,Ms.Mocoa
was given an apartment inanew gov-
ernment-erectedbuilding this year. First
therewas nowater. Then the plumbing
leaked.Adesign flaw causes the apart-
menttoflood whenit rains. But herire
was never directedatMr. Chávez.
‘‘He gives orders, but theydon’t dothe
things as hewants themdone,’’ Ms.Mo-
coa said, reflecting a commonpercep-
tion thatMr. Chávez’ssubordinatesare
corruptorinept, and that many of the
country’sproblems can be attributed to
greedy capitalists. ‘‘It’snot his fault.’’
She said shewas willing to give Mr.
Maduro a chancetoprove himself. But
not all Chávez supporters feel thatway.
‘‘I only want Chávez,’’ said Agustín
Gutiérrez, 53, in Cumaná, an eastern
city, adding that he did not trustMr.Ma-
durotocarry on‘‘the revolution.’ ’
‘‘There cannot be Chavismowithout
Chávez,’’ he said.
Mr. Chávez’s ownrecord is mixed.
Afterdoing littletoaddressadeephous-
ing shortage, he has givenaway tens of
thousands ofhomes, but the rush to build
meantthat many were plaguedbycon-
structionflaws or otherproblems. Hehas
usedprice controls to make foodafford-
able for the poor, but that has contributed
to shortages in basic goods. He createda
popular program ofneighborhood clinics
oftenstaffedbyCuban doctors, but hos-
pitals frequently lack basic equipment.
There is no doubtthat living condi-
tions have improvedfor the poor under
Mr. Chávez, and that is the greatest
sourceof his popularity. But the im-
provementscame at a timewhen high
oil prices were pouring moneyinto the
country and fueling economic growth,
which some analystssaywould have led
to similar improvements under many
leaders,evensomewithmore market-
friendly policies.
Still,Mr. Chávez’smovement is as
much about ideas and symbols as mate-
rial gains, and he has givenawhole
class ofpeoplethatwas once ignoreda
sensethattheir problems matter.
If Mr. Chávez is unabletostart his
new six-year term onJan. 10, if he steps
downafter thatorifhe dies, new elec-
tions will take place. He has named Mr.
Maduro as his chosen candidate.
For theopposition, anew electionso
soonafteritsstinging defeat in the pres-
idential contest in October would seem
agolden opportunity. It has neverbeen
abletobeatMr. Chávez in a head-to-
head race, but its candidateshave often
donewell againstothermembers of Mr.
Chávez’s party.
The most likely opposition candidate
is Henrique Capriles Radonski, ayoung
governor who ranastrong campaign
wing,which includes Mr.Maduro, that
is strongly committed to the socialist-in-
spiredprogram.And there is a faction
linked to themilitary,which putsnation-
alism ahead ofsocialism. There areoth-
ergroups, too, including the govern-
ment-run oil industry and a group of
entrepreneurs who have gotten rich off
government contracts and connections.
‘‘Now comes the internal power
struggle,’’ said Luis La Torre, asupport-
er of Mr. Chávez fromCarúpano.
Forallof Mr. Chávez’sinternational
clout, especially among other eftist
governmentsinthe region,these do-
mestic political relationshipsmay prove
the most difficulttomanagewithout
him.Afterall,Mr.Maduro has servedas
foreignministerfor six years and is well
knownforpromoting Mr. Chávez’s of-
tencontentiousforeign policy, including
forging close relations withcountries
like Iran and Syria. Some analysts ex-
pect littletochangeon the international
frontwith Mr.Maduro atthe helm,ex-
cept perhaps a thawing in relations with
theUnitedStatesbecause he is con-
sideredmoreopen to dialogue.
If Mr. Chávez does indeedleave office,
whoeverreplaces himwill faceaseries of
economic challenges.Mosteconomists
predict growth will slow next year, and
some foresee arecession, afterayear
markedbyahuge jump in government
spending aimedat gettingMr. Chávez re-
elected.An eventual devaluation of the
currency,the bolívar, seems likely, and
many alsoexpect a rise in the already
high inflationrate. Theoil industry,the
most important sector of theeconomy
and a crucial sourceofgovernment rev-
enue, is stagnant and needs vast invest-
menttoincrease productionlevels.
Without Mr. Chávez to hold things
to-
gether, his movement could well
splinter over time, whether ornot it re-
mains in power. But it is almost certain
to remain a force.
‘‘The legacy ofChávez is going to be
very powerful,’ ’ said Francisco Rodríg-
uez, an Bank of America Merrill Lynch
economist. ‘‘It’s hard formetothink ofa
Venezuela where five or10 years from
now there aren’t alot ofpoliticians try-
ing to get votes appealing to having been
Chavistas and appealing to the memory
thatVenezuelans have ofChávez.’’
María Iguarán contributed reporting
from Cumaná, Venezuela, and Andrew
Rosati from Caracas.
Inequality: Income inequality is rising
in mostof theworld and is being talked
about everywhere, from China to
EuropetotheUnitedStates. But both
Mr. Bremmer and Mr. Roubini question
how real the political responsewill be—
and hence how much true economic im-
pact itwill have. ‘‘This is an issue that
is coming, but it is not there yet,’’ Mr.
Bremmer said. ‘‘It is clear in theU.S.
we aretalking about inequality. It is not
clear we will do anything about it.’’
Now is a tough timetobe apolitical
scientist. Academia is suffering from
the same fiscal squeeze plaguing all
public institutions, and students of the
humanitiesare being hardest hit as
education wakes up to thetriumph of
the quants that business figured out
long ago. The irony is that, in the mean-
time, business is rediscovering politics
— don’t drop out of that doctoral pro-
gram in political science just yet.
Chrystia Freeland is Editor, Thomson
Reuters Digital.
E-MAIL:
pagetwo@iht.com
With illness recurring,
speculation rises about
future of his revolution
BYWILLIAMNEUMAN
The bottlenecks at a majorportwere so
bad this year that Christmas treesfrom
Canada were delayedfor weeks, and
when they did show up theycost hun-
dreds ofdollars.
A government-runice cream factory
opened withgreat fanfare, only to shut
down a day laterbecauseofashortage
of basic ingredients. Foreign currency
is so hard to come by that automakers
cannot get parts and new cars are al-
most impossibletobuy.
All of this happened whiletheecono-
mywas growing—beforethe slowdown
many predict next year.
Such frustrations are ypical in
Venezuela, for rich and poor alike. Yet
President Hugo Chávez has managed to
stay in office fornearly 14 years,winning
over a significant majority of the public
with his outsize personality, his free-
spending ofstate resources and his abil-
ity to convinceVenezuelans thattheir
lives will be made betterbyhisrevolu-
tionary movement, knownasChavismo.
Now that Socialist revolutionis
threatenedbyMr. Chávez’s fightwith
cancer, raising an urgent questionfor
Venezuela:Will Chavismo survive Mr.
Chávez?
His health has become precarious
enough that beforeundergoing surgery
this weekhe designatedasuccessorfor
the firsttime, saying thatVicePresi-
dent Nicolás Maduro should lead in his
place if he cannot continue.
But as theundisputedhead of the rev-
olutionary movement namedfor him,
Mr. Chávez makes virtually all major
government decisions and bulliesboth
allies and opponents to keep themin
line. Topgovernmentofficials speak of
him as their father. During his most re-
cent presidential campaign this fall he
frequently stirredcrowds with the
shout: ‘‘Chávez is revolution!’’
Many doubtthat any successor will
be as adept at fostering support amid
the nation’s economic problems,wide-
spread corruption, rampant crime and
daily hassles.
JORGE SILVA/REUTERS
Nicolás Maduro is seen as more open to
a dialogue with the United States.
againstMr. Chávez in theOctober elec-
tion.OnSunday hewill runforre-elec-
tionasgovernor of Miranda State. If he
wins, hewould seemset as theopposi-
tionstandard-bearer. If he loses,that
could provoke apotentially bruising
battle overleadership within theoppo-
sition,which has a history of infighting.
But Chavismo, too, has its factions,
and onSaturday Mr. Chávez stagedan
intenseefforttoenforceunitybefore his
operation.Appearing on television to
nameMr.Maduro as next in line, he
pointed to asword thatonce belonged to
SimónBolívar,the independence leader
whomMr. Chávez venerates, and asked
for ‘‘all the supportof the people.’’
The factions within Chavismo follow
two broad divisions. There is a civilian
IN OUR PAGES
✴
100, 75, 50 YEARS AGO
1912 Automobile Firm Entertains Agents
PARIS
The first annual banquet givenforits
European representativesbythe HuppMotor
Car Company,ofDetroit, was held last night in
Paris, atthe RestaurantMarguery. Itwas the
first dinner of theAmerican Invasion,toquote
thewords of Captain Frank H.Mason,American
Consul-General,who saton the rightof Mr. C.D.
Haysting, general manager of the company.And
itwasajolly dinner, too. Menrepresenting
twelve different nations sat down to it, but it is
safetosay that mostof them understood or
spoke English.
1937 Japanese Planes Sink Floating Embassy
SHANGHAI
The 450-ton UnitedStatesgunboat
Panay,which has beenserving as a shelterfor
Embassy officials and newspapercorrespon-
dents sincethe attack on Nanking began,was
bombed and sunk in theYangtse RiverbyJapa-
nese planesyesterday afternoon.Atthe same
time, three Standard Oil lighters near the gun-
boatwere struck by bombs, and two of themset
onfire, whilethethird was beached. Ninety-five
Chinese and two Americans are reported to have
been killedbythe bombings, andascoreof oth-
ers werewounded.
1962 Tito Backs Russian Policy
MOSCOW
A historic moment in thetopsy-turvy
annals of world Communismwas recorded today
when President Tito of Yugoslavia mounteda
rostruminthe Kremlin, signaling his return to
the East bloc.As expected,Marshal Tito praised
Soviet Premier NikitaS. Khrushchev’s military
withdrawal fromCuba and hailed the Soviet Un-
ion’s ‘‘peacefulpolicies.’ ’ Ofgreater significance
was the mere factthatMarshal Tito had com-
pleted the long road back from virtual isolationin
the bloc, although bothhe andMr. Khrushchev
acknowledgethat differencesremain.
....
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2012
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....
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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2012
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
World News
europe
Monti gets mixed reviews from home front
Judges back
victim of
rendition
by C.I.A.
BERLIN
ROME
Premier is faulted
for tax increases and
accused of feeble reforms
BY RACHEL DONADIO
As Prime Minister Mario Monti pre-
pares to exit the stage, he has burnished
Italy’s image abroad, but is less beloved
at home.
Italians are irate about higher taxes,
while critics say that Mr. Monti failed to
carry out key structural changes and left
a legacy of austerity more than growth.
For months, lawmakers have blocked
many of Mr. Monti’s unpopular spend-
ing cuts, revealing the limits of his tech-
nocratic government. Although nothing
is certain, it appears unlikely that Mr.
Monti will run in early elections expect-
ed in February, in part because the polit-
ical scene is so chaotic that he might not
gain enough votes to matter.
‘‘The illusionwas thatMonti would be
there forever, which was an illusion,’’
said Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a former
member of the executive board of the
European Central Bank. ‘‘We all know
that with a grand coalition like the one
supporting Monti, the closer it gets to
elections, the greater the chance that
none of the components wants to take
responsibility.’’
WhileMr. Monti passed tax increases,
introduced a property tax, raised the re-
tirement age and made changes to
Italy’s labor laws, a host of bills have
languished in Parliament. Lawmakers
from parties in varying states of col-
lapse, who are terrified of losing their
seats, have balked at his spending cuts
for months.
Even sympathetic critics say Mr.
Monti did not do nearly enough with his
mandate, especially in the firstmonths of
his government, when market pressures
gave himmore leverage over lawmakers
who helped drive up the spending that
got Italy in trouble in the first place.
‘‘The labor market reform was under
expectations, it didn’t do things it could
do, it took very long to negotiate and at
the end brought very modest reforms,’’
said Tito Boeri, an economist at Milan’s
Bocconi University. He added that Mr.
Monti was also ‘‘very timid’’ about lib-
eralizing the guilds that serve as entry
barriers for most professions.
That is largely because the parties
supporting his government didn’t want
to lose support with constituents. A bill
that would have reduced the number of
Italian provinces, eliminating a level of
state spending and bureaucracy, was
blocked in Parliament, as was a bill that
would cut state spending on politicians.
‘‘Paradoxically, the government of
technocrats was blocked by the ‘techno-
cracy,’ people in the public administra-
tion in Italy who have been there for
years and who tried to make it hard for
the government,’’ Mr. Boeri added.
Italy is suffering its worst recession in
60 years. Consumer spending suffered
its sharpest year-on-year drop since
World War II, according to Italy’s lead-
ing business association. Home sales
were down 23 percent in the second
quarter of the year compared to the
same period last year.
Bank lending has plummeted, unem-
Macedonia abused rights
of German in his arrest,
European court rules
BY NICHOLAS KULISH
After years of legal struggles, a German
man mistaken for a terrorist and abduc-
ted and held captive for months in 2004
won a measure of redress on Thursday
when the European Court of Human
Rights ruled that Macedonia had violat-
ed his rights by arresting him and turn-
ing him over to the United States.
In a unanimous ruling, a 17-judge pan-
el, based in Strasbourg, found that
Macedonia had violated the prohibition
against torture and inhuman or degrad-
ing treatment in the European Conven-
tion on Human Rights for its role in the
abduction of the man, Khaled el-Masri.
It was the first time that a court had
ruled inMr. Masri’s favor in the case.
Mr. Masri, 49, who is of Lebanese des-
cent, was seized on Dec. 31, 2003, as he
entered Macedonia while on vacation;
border security guards confused him
with an operative of Al Qaeda with a
similar name. He says he was turned
over to the C.I.A., which flew him to Af-
ghanistan as part of its clandestine
rendition program, in which terrorism
suspects were transported to third
countries for interrogation.
After more than four months in cus-
tody, he was dropped on a roadside in
Albania. No charges were filed against
him. Mr. Masri has said he was held in a
secret U.S. prison in Afghanistan and
tortured before his captors let him go.
Mr. Masri’s account of his seizure by
the Macedonian authorities and rendi-
tion to Afghanistan by the C.I.A. was
‘‘established beyond reasonable
doubt,’’ the ruling said. The court
ordered Macedonia to pay Mr. Masri
about $78,000 in damages.
The decision, which Amnesty Inter-
national hailed as ‘‘a historic moment
and a milestone in the fight against im-
punity,’’ is final and cannot be appealed.
The C.I.A. declined to comment on the
ruling.
‘‘It’s a historic ruling and sends the
message to European nations that they
have a heightened obligation to investi-
gate their complicity and cooperation
with the illegal C.I.A. extraordinary
rendition program,’’ said Jamil Dakwar,
head of the human rights programat the
American Civil Liberties Union.
Kostadin Bogdanov, a lawyer who
represented Macedonia before the
court, said that Macedonia would pay
the damages and perhaps take other ac-
tions in light of the ruling. They include
reopening the Masri investigation and
amending laws regarding criminal pro-
cedures or their implementation, he
said.
James A. Goldston, executive director
at the Open Society Justice Initiative,
who argued the case before the court,
called the ruling ‘‘a comprehensive con-
demnation of the worst aspects of the
post-9/11 war on terror tactics that were
employed by the C.I.A. and govern-
ments who cooperated with them.’’
A lawsuit against the United States
filed on Mr. Masri’s behalf by the
A.C.L.U. was dismissed in 2006 on the
ground that
JOHN THYS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Prime Minister Mario Monti, center, met with the European People’s Party, an umbrella group of center-right political parties, in Brussels on Thursday.
ployment is at 11.1 percent and experts
say the figure may be even higher. Italy
has one of Europe’s lowest employment
levels — the number of people of work-
ing age who are employed — and other
workers have been placed on a govern-
ment-subsidized furlough program that
is counted in hours, not people. Much to
Italians’ chagrin, the second installment
of a new property tax came due just
ahead of the holiday shopping season.
‘‘This government has really given us
a good thrashing,’’ said Rosaria Cistello,
62, in Rome.
With growth prospects slim — Italy
has not grown in two decades — some
have criticized Mr. Monti for not using
the European Central Bank’s new bond-
buying mechanism, which would have
locked Italy into commitments set by
the International Monetary Fund in ex-
change for the E.C.B.’s buying Italian
bonds to keep interest rates down.
‘‘Had we had an I.M.F. program right
now there would be much less uncer-
tainty,’’ Mr. Bini Smaghi said. He added
that if the recession deepens, credit
crunch worsens and reforms stall, Italy
ultimately might need external help to
service its debts in the future.
‘‘The political cost of asking for a pro-
gram has to become lower than the eco-
nomic cost for the country of not having
a program, which might mean that the
latter will ultimately increase,’’ he said.
But others said that Mr. Monti had no
reason to bring in the I.M.F, whose in-
terventions have helped create political
instability, as leaders find themselves
locked into cost-cutting programs that
meet with growing social unrest.
‘‘I don’t think he should have, I don’t
think we needed one,’’ said Mr. Boeri,
the economist. ‘‘I hope we don’t arrive
at that point, even if Spain does.’’
With more economic turmoil ahead, it
remains to be seenwhowill govern Italy
after elections. Although former Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi spooked
markets by saying that he would run
again, he now appears to be looking for
ways to back out. In spite of Mr. Ber-
lusconi’s penchant for attracting atten-
tion, if he runs, analysts say he will most
likely suffer a stinging defeat.
Lost in the theatrics is Pierluigi Ber-
sani, the leader of the center-left Demo-
cratic Party and a former economic
growthministerwho looks poised towin
elections by a largemargin and is trying
to forge an image as a reliable leader on
board withMr. Monti’s agenda.
Mr. Bersani said on Thursday that his
Democratic Party would be a clear win-
ner and could form a stable governing
majority capable of
will allow us to govern,’’ he said.
But Mr. Bersani’s party, which is
backed by Italy’s largest labor union,
won’t easily be able to govern without
the help of centrist parties and the smal-
ler Left Ecology and Freedom party,
which does not agree with many of Mr.
Monti’s neo-liberal reforms.
‘‘Themost likely scenario today is that
the Democratic Party with the Left, Eco-
logy and Freedom party will win both in
t
he House and in the Senate,’’ said
that would otherwise go to the Demo-
cratic Party or Mr. Berlusconi’s party,
raising the prospect of a hung Parlia-
ment in which no party has a strong
enough coalition to govern.
There is wide speculation that instead
of running for office, Mr. Monti, who will
remain in Parliament as a senator for
life, could likely replace 87-year-old
Giorgio Napolitano as president of Italy,
whose term is up this spring.
‘‘These are the most unpredictable
elections in years,’’ said John Foot, a
professor of Italian history at Universi-
ty College, London. ‘‘It’s not worth try-
ing to predict anything. You will just be
proved wrong straight away.’’
Most Italians long for stability. ‘‘The
real issue with Italian politics is that no
one has had a plan, a programfor the past
20 years. The political debate went from
‘Berlusconi is a criminal’ to ‘Berlusconi is
a Godsend,’ ’’ said Antonio Torda, 53, who
owns a housewares shop in Rome.
Mr. Torda said he had ‘‘deep respect’’
for Mr. Monti, but wished he had passed
some growth measures. ‘‘We need a
political government that really makes
decisions, takes responsibility for them
and then asks the electorate whether
they were right or wrong at the next
turn.
‘‘Just regular democracy,’’ he added.
Elisabetta Povoledo and Gaia Pianigiani
contributed reporting.
‘‘The labor market reform was
under expectations, it didn’t
do things it could do, it took
very long to negotiate.’’
Roberto D’Alimonte, a political scientist
at Luiss Guido Carlì University in Rome.
Mr. Berlusconi has said he would
withdraw if Mr. Monti agreed to lead a
broad center-right coalition, an offer the
technocrat is unlikely to take. Several
centrist parties are wooing Mr. Monti,
including the Union of Christian Demo-
crats, and a civic movement founded by
Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, the pres-
ident of Ferrari.
But neither movement has powerful
political machines, and opinion polls
place them at no more than 10 percent
combined. If Mr. Monti joined them, he
would effectively split moderate votes
tackling Italy’s
problems.
‘‘I am certain that there will be gov-
ernability, both in terms of numbers and
politically, because whatever the num-
bers, we are open to a dialogue with
European and constitutional forces that
BRIEFLY
Europe
Libyan who claims
forced return wins
settlement in U.K.
U.S. lawyers f
ind flaws in Ukraine trial
MOSCOW
The report is dated September 2012,
but it was held back by the Ukrainian
government until Thursday.
Once a strong candidate for the Euro-
pean Union, Ukraine has become in-
creasingly isolated under Mr. Ya-
nukovich’s leadership. The trial
severely hurt relations between
Ukraine and the West, and there were
later efforts to prosecute Ms. Ty-
moshenko on charges of tax evasion and
embezzlement.
Ms. Tymoshenko, who has chronic
back problems, was sentenced to seven
years and is being held in a prison hospi-
tal in eastern Ukraine. International
monitors sharply criticized parliamen-
tary elections that were held in Ukraine
in October, citing the jailing of opposi-
tion leaders as a main concern.
The American lawyers sharply criti-
cized the judge’s handling of Ms. Ty-
moshenko’s trial. ‘‘Tymoshenko’s abili-
ty to present a defense in her trial
appears to have been compromised to a
degree that is troubling under Western
standards of due process and the rule of
law,’’ they wrote in describing how de-
fense witnesses were barred.
Still, Ms. Tymoshenko’s supporters re-
jected the report as biased. Her main
lawyer, Sergei Vlasenko, who met with
the American legal team, also accused
the government of lying about howmuch
it paid for the analysis. (Mr. Craig would
not say what his firm had been paid.)
‘‘They are not independent lawyers,’’
Mr. Vlasenko said by telephone from
Kiev. ‘‘There were clear violations of
Ukrainian and international standards.’’
As for the findings that supportedMs.
Tymoshenko’s conviction, he said,
‘‘They received the clients’ demand:
Please find something good for us.’’
David E. Sanger reported fromWashing-
ton.
it would expose state
secrets.
The A.C.L.U. is representing Mr.
Masri in a case against the United
States now before the Inter-American
Commission on Human Rights. The pe-
tition was filed in 2008, and the U.S. gov-
ernment has yet to respond.
Nearly nine years have passed since
the authorities pulled Mr. Masri off a
bus at the Macedonian border on New
Review, ordered by Kiev,
cites legal errors but sees
no political bias in case
LONDON
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
A former Libyan dissident and his fam-
ily have accepted £2.2 million from the
British government to settle a claim
that Britain approved their rendition to
face imprisonment by Muammar el-
Qaddafi’s regime, the family’s lawyers
said Thursday.
The payout of about $3.5 million is the
latest in a series resulting from British
involvement in the U.S.-led anti-terror
efforts that followed attacks on New
York andWashington on Sept. 11, 2001.
Sami al-Saadi had sued theBritish gov-
ernment and intelligence agency MI6
over their alleged role in his 2004 abduc-
tion in Hong Kong and transfer to Libya,
where he says he was held and tortured
for years. His wife and four children, 12
and under, were also sent to Libya.
British ministers have always denied
any complicity in rendition or torture.
The Foreign Office confirmed the settle-
ment, but not the amount. ‘‘There has
been no admission of liability and no
finding by any court of liability,’’ it said.
In a statement issued by the law firm
Leigh Day & Co., Mr. Saadi said he was
accepting the settlement because ‘‘my
family has suffered enough.’’
‘‘They will now have the chance to
complete their education in the new,
free Libya,’’ he said. ‘‘I will be able to af-
ford the medical care I need because of
the injuries I suffered in prison.’’
In 2010, Britain paid millions of
pounds in settlements to 16 former
Guantánamo Bay detainees who al-
leged U.K. complicity in their harsh
treatment overseas, though the govern-
ment did not admit liability.
ATHENS
Oligarch arrested on charges
of fraud and embezzlement
Lavrentis Lavrentiadis, a Greek oli-
garch, was arrested on Thursday on a
string of criminal charges, a court offi-
cial said, as the authorities pursued an
investigation that has highlighted con-
cerns about deep-rooted corruption
and cronyism in Greece.
Mr. Lavrentiadis, who was once a
majority shareholder in Proton Bank,
which is accused of issuing millions of
euros in bad loans to dormant compa-
nies. He was arrested at his home in
Vouliagmeni, south of Athens, in the
early evening, a police spokesman said.
Mr. Lavrentiadis is expected to face an
investigating magistrate on Friday on
charges of fraud, embezzlement,
money laundering and membership in
a criminal gang, the court official said.
The official said conviction could result
in a life sentence.
The arrest came a day after a court
ordered the seizure of millions of euros
in assets belonging to Mr. Lavrentiadis
and 29 former associates.
LONDON
Nurse in prank call was found hanged
A nurse who was found dead after be-
ing tricked by a prank call last week
from an Australian radio station in-
volving the Duchess of Cambridge was
found hanging by a scarf and had left
several notes, a preliminary inquest
was told Thursday. The contents of the
notes left by the nurse, Jacintha
Saldanha, 46, were not revealed.
BY DAVIDM. HERSZENHORN
AND DAVID E. SANGER
In a report commissioned by the govern-
ment of Ukraine, a team of American
lawyers has concluded that important le-
gal rights of the imprisoned former
prime minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko
were violated during her trial last year on
charges of abusing her official power, and
that she was wrongly imprisoned even
before her conviction and sentencing.
But on another central issue, they
found no evidence of political motivation
by the government in her prosecution.
The lawyers, led by Gregory B. Craig,
former White House counsel to Presi-
dent Barack Obama, concluded that Ms.
Tymoshenko was denied legal counsel
at ‘‘critical stages’’ of her trial and that
at other times her lawyerswerewrongly
barred from calling relevant witnesses.
Those two findings suggest that she
could have some success in a pending
appeal before the European Court of
Human Rights.
But over all, the lawyers, fromthe firm
of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher &
Flom, seemed to side heavily with the
government of President Viktor F. Ya-
nukovich, which commissioned their re-
port. The lawyers concluded thatMs. Ty-
moshenko’s conviction was supported
by the evidence presented at trial, and
they found no evidence in the trial re-
cord to support to her main contention:
that her prosecution was a politically
motivated effort by Mr. Yanukovich, her
archrival, to sideline her and cripple
It is ‘‘a comprehensive
condemnation of the worst
aspects of the post-9/11 war
on terror tactics.’’
SERGEY DOLZHENKO/EPA
Supporters of the jailed former prime min-
ister Yulia V. Tymoshenko in Kiev in 2011.
Ukraine’s main opposition party.
‘‘The trial court based its finding of
Tymoshenko’s guilt on factual determ-
inations that had evidentiary support in
the trial record,’’ the lawyers wrote.
‘‘Based on review of the record,’’ they
added, ‘‘we do not believe that Ty-
moshenko has provided specific evi-
dence of political motivation that would
be sufficient to overturn her conviction
under American standards.’’
In an interview on Wednesday, Mr.
Craig, one of the most connected law-
yers in the Washington establishment,
said his team was not able to judge the
local politics that brought Ms. Ty-
moshenko to trial on charges of abusing
her authority in agreeing to a natural
gas deal with Russia when she was
prime minister.
Mr. Craig acknowledged that Secre-
tary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton
was among many Western leaders who
have criticized the prosecution as crass
political reprisal. ‘‘We leave to others
the question of whether this prosecution
was politically motivated,’’ he said.
‘‘Our assignment was to look at the ev-
idence in the record and determine
whether the trial was fair.’’
Year’s Eve in 2003. He was taken to a
hotel in the capital, Skopje, and locked in
a room there for 23 days. His detention,
along with the threat that he would be
shot if he left the hotel room, ‘‘amounted
on various counts to inhuman and de-
grading treatment,’’ the ruling said.
When he was handed over to the
C.I.A. rendition team at the Skopje air-
port, he was ‘‘severely beaten, sodom-
ized, shackled and hooded’’ in the pres-
ence of Macedonian officials, the ruling
said, a treatment that ‘‘amounted to tor-
ture.’’
His German lawyer, Manfred Gnjidic,
said his mental state had suffered not
only abuse but the ‘‘nine years of con-
stantly fighting, being called a liar, a ter-
rorist, an Islamist, a hard-liner.’’
Mr. Masri has broken off contact with
his lawyers while serving a prison sen-
tence on unrelated charges involving a
2009 assault on the mayor of Neu-Ulm,
in Bavaria.
Chris Cottrell contributed reporting from
Berlin, and Scott Shane fromWashing-
ton.
 ....
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 14, 2012
|
5
THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
europe middle east
world news
Top diplomats see
Assad fading fast
SYRIA, FROMPAGE 1
Syrian people.
Mr. Bogdanov offered a dark view of
how the conflict would unfold from this
point forward, saying that it took two
years for the rebels to gain control of 60
percent of Syria’s territory, and that it
would take not more than another year
and a half before they controlled the
rest.
‘‘If up until now 40,000 people have
died, then from this point forward it will
be crueler, and you will lose dozens or
many hundreds of thousands of people,’’
he said. ‘‘If you accept this price to
topple the president, what can we do?
We of course consider this totally unac-
ceptable.’’
As the Russian official spoke, fresh
evidence of the intensity of the battle
emerged. The Syrian state news media
and anti-government activists reported
that at least 16 people were killed on
Thursday when a car bomb exploded
near a school in Qatana, a town south-
west of the capital that lies near several
army bases. The explosion happened in
a residential area for soldiers, Reuters
reported.
The bomb wounded more than 20
people, leaving some in critical condi-
tion, according to the Syrian Observato-
ry for Human Rights, which is based in
Britain and tracks the conflict through a
network of activists.
The number of car bombs in residen-
tial areas appears to have increased in
recent weeks, hitting neighborhoods
perceived as housing many govern-
ment supporters as well as others con-
sidered sympathetic to the uprising.
Russia has cast its stance on Syria as
a principled stand against Western-led
intervention — a passionate topic for
President Vladimir V. Putin, who be-
lieves that Russia was deceived into
supporting a no-flight zone in Libya that
ultimately led to a military campaign
that overthrew Col. Muammar el-Qad-
dafi. In recent days, Moscow has been
adamant that its fundamental position
has not changed.
For many months, the Russian au-
thorities have resisted Western pres-
sure to persuade Mr. Assad to step
down. Though Russia has said it sup-
ports the creation of a transitional gov-
ernment, it has been at odds with the
West on whether Mr. Assad — and his
ally Iran —would have a voice in it.
Fixing leak
y pipes, with opposition help
MOSCOW
BY ANDREW E. KRAMER
Not since Joe the Plumber became a
symbol of working-class angst in the 2008
U.S. presidential election have contrac-
tors taken on such political overtones.
In a city where it is often impossible to
get a plumber or any other repairman,
somebody just figured out how to fix the
pipes—and replace light bulbs, scrub off
graffiti and patch leaky roofs.
Throughout Moscow and other Russian
cities, such building repairs are suddenly
in full swing as the city’s craftsmen, their
reputations for surliness, laziness and
drunkenness undiminished, are hurry-
ing from one appointment to another.
Muscovites are crediting a new Web
site for the unaccustomed Calvinist work
ethic. Called Roszkh, it streamlines the
process for filing complaints about main-
tenance of the communal areas of apart-
ment buildings that remained public
property after post-Soviet privatizations.
Stymied by a loss of momentum after
street protests, Russian opposition
leaders had been casting about for other
approaches to remain relevant through
what promises to be a long tenure for
President Vladimir V. Putin.
Aleksei Navalny, a blogger and polit-
ical activist, hit upon the idea of theWeb
site, which is run under the auspices of
his Foundation for Fighting Corruption.
‘‘It’s difficult to say when the next
wave of protests will come,’’ Mr.
Navalny said in an interview about his
new site, named after an acronym Rus-
sians use for their combined utility and
building maintenance bills, ZhKKh.
Roszkh was an instant sensation.
Since the site went up on in early No-
vember, 28,354 users have filed 45,835
complaints, mostly in Moscow and oth-
er large cities. So far, repairmen have
fixed about 2,600 reported problems.
That may not sound like much, but in
Russia it qualifies as extraordinary.
‘‘I live in an old five-story building
where the hallway has no light and no
windows,’’ one Muscovite, Boris
Frantskevich, wrote in a post. It seemed
it would be that way forever. But on a
lark, he tried logging a complaint on the
Web site. ‘‘Just today, I walk out of my
apartment and an electrician is digging
in the wires,’’ Mr. Frantskevich wrote.
‘‘Wow, he’s fixed the light.’’
Mr. Navalny attributes the site’s suc-
cess to official sensitivities to a deep vein
of public anger over the deplorable state
of housing in Russia, and particularly in
Mr. Bogdanov said on Thursday that
Russia’s stance had been deliberately
distorted in theWestern newsmedia, an
effort ‘‘intended to weaken our influ-
ence’’ in theMiddle East, and that third-
party governments had strengthened
rebel forces by providing weapons.
‘‘Massive supply of modern arma-
ments have pushed the Syrian rebels to
stake their hopes on force,’’ leading to
‘‘an acceleration of the spiral of vio-
lence,’’ he said.
Leonid Medvedko, a political analyst
who used to cover Syria for Soviet news
services, said officials had so far been
reluctant to declare an evacuation of
Russian citizens ‘‘because there are
technical questions, political questions
— because it will mean we are fully giv-
ing up Syria.’’
‘‘It is a humanitarian step, but each
humanitarian step has a political mean-
ing,’’ he said.
From the first, Russia has taken the
view that Mr. Assad’s departure would
usher in a long and chaotic process of
‘‘I think the regime in
Damascus is approaching
collapse. I think now it is only
a question of time.’’
JAMES HILL FOR THE NEWYORK TIMES
Aleksei Navalny in Moscow. He attributes the success of his Web site to official worries about public anger over the state of housing.
the presidential election last winter,
only to kick in this year.
The fees have been rising faster than
inflation. Many Russians are incensed
about paying more — now the equiva-
lent of about $130 a month in Moscow,
and less in other cities — while hall-
ways, even in upscale buildings, are of-
ten yawning black tunnels, splattered
with graffiti and reeking of septic odors.
These problems have become a vul-
nerability forMr. Putin, but one largely of
his own making. The governing party,
United Russia, went to great pains to en-
sure that it dominated not only national
but also regional and local politics, often
suppressing opponents to do so. The
party also dominates city councils. As
Mr. Navalny, a former real estate lawyer,
has been gleefully pointing out, this
means that every broken light bulb and
burst pipe is now the party’s problem.
‘‘We are trying to attract people who
can fight corruption together with us,’’
Mr. Navalny said. ‘‘It’s clear that an or-
dinary person has a hard time helping
us fight corruption at Gazprom,’’ the big
state energy company. ‘‘But unfortu-
nately in Russia, corruption surrounds
a person everywhere. We are trying to
create a mechanism for people to fight
corruption themselves.’’
The site asks users to enter their ad-
dress and choose from a menu of com-
mon Russian repair problems: water
flowing a rich orange color from rusted
pipes, say, or a boiler failing in winter.
The program then pastes on a lengthy
legal text composed byMr. Navalny and
his volunteer group of lawyers for the
benefit of the receiving bureaucrat, cit-
ing ordinances that mandate a response
or repair, usually within 45 days.
The site sends complaints to the mu-
nicipal authority in thousands of cities in
Russia’s 83 regions. So far, Muscovites
and residents of a few other large cities
where Internet use is high have filed
most of the complaints. The site saves
profiles, allowing Russians to return
whenever they have another leaky pipe
or a new buildup of filth in a hallway.
fragmentation in Syria. Mr. Medvedko,
the former journalist, said he expected
Syria to split into four parts that would
be home to distinct ethnic and religious
groups, much as Yugoslavia did in the
1990s.
Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Rus-
sia inGlobal Affairs and head of an influ-
ential policy group, said that even if Mr.
Assad left the country, his countrymen
would keep fighting.
‘‘The prevailing view is that it will be
complete and desperate chaos,’’ Mr.
Lukyanov said. ‘‘To remove Assad will
not mean settlement of the Syrian con-
flict.’’
Referring to the minority sect that
rules Syria, he continued: ‘‘You can re-
move him — I don’t know in which way
— but what will you do to 300,000 Alaw-
ites? Theywill be fighting for their lives,
not for power anymore.’’
Rick Gladstone reported fromNew York.
Alan Cowell contributed reporting from
London and Anne Barnard fromBeirut.
AWeb site for housing
complaints uses the law to put
the heat on Russian officials.
Moscow. In a leaked letter, Russia’s chief
housing inspector issued an order that
the complaints on Mr. Navalny’s Web
site be addressed immediately. The in-
spector, Nikolai Vasyutin, clarified the
government response in a letter to subor-
dinates: Applicants needed to be helped
immediately, not in spite of the site’s
political character, but because of it.
‘‘It’s become obvious this is a policy
by the opposition to discredit all levels
of the government,’’ the letter said.
‘‘But this shouldn’t confuse the organs
of the state housing inspection.’’ It in-
structed city officials to counteract the
tactic by fixing problems quickly.
Public opinion surveys indicate that
the steady rise in ZhKKh fees is the is-
sue that upsets Russians most; a
planned increase was delayed during
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